NORTH PORT, Fla. — Just when it appeared the Atlanta Braves might wrap up their Opening Day roster decisions early, that things were all but settled midway through spring training, they reassigned reliever Ken Giles to Triple A and signed free-agent outfielder Adam Duvall to a one-year deal that sure changed Forrest Wall’s status.
So, it’s time for Roster Projection 2.0, and this time we mean it.
Giles impressed everyone with his new wipeout slider, and the March 8 reassignment to minor-league camp was just so the former closer could keep building arm strength with multi-inning and back-to-back appearances. Giles is expected back by early summer and showed this spring that he could become an important part of the bullpen.
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Wall once looked likely to make the Opening Day roster as a fourth outfielder, after the speedster’s improved offensive showing in early Grapefruit League games. Now, he’s probably heading back to Triple A after the Braves signed Duvall for a third stint with the team and announced Duvall would platoon in left field with struggling newcomer Jarred Kelenic.
It probably makes no sense to carry five outfielders who have no infield experience on a team where regulars play every day. And since Wall would probably get few if any at-bats unless there were an injury to Ronald Acuña Jr, Michael Harris II or the left-field platooners, the Braves could give the 26th and final Opening Day roster spot to outfielder Luke Williams, who also has infield experience, or David Fletcher, who would join Luis Guillermo to give the Braves two utility infielders.
#Braves' Matzek has seemingly ended the beginning-of-spring discussion of him perhaps needing a couple of weeks on the IL to start the season to shake off rust. He's been sharp as spring has progressed, and Sunday had four strikeouts with two groundouts in two perfect innings.
— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) March 17, 2024
With only 10 days left until the March 28 opener at Philadelphia, it’s a good time to discuss those remaining decisions and how the roster is taking shape. We’ll begin with the rotation, where the outlook hasn’t changed since camp opened.
Starting pitchers (5): Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Chris Sale, Charlie Morton, Reynaldo López
Strikeout maestro Strider added a curveball to his repertoire during the winter and has demonstrated good command of the pitch, making it a potentially impactful complement to his explosive 97-99 mph fastballs and sliders.
The MLB strikeout leader over the past two seasons, Strider has continued that this spring, with seven strikeouts in 4 2/3 scoreless innings Sunday against the Baltimore Orioles to raise his MLB-leading total to 29 strikeouts, with seven walks, 11 hits and an 0.96 WHIP in a majors-leading 18 2/3 scoreless innings. No one else has more than 21 strikeouts and no other qualified pitcher has allowed fewer than two earned runs this spring.
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Strider could be in line for his first Opening Day start in his second season as a full-time starter. The Braves open against the Phillies, and Strider is 8-0 with a 1.90 ERA in eight regular-season games (seven starts) against them, including 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA in three starts at Philadelphia.
The first four spots in the rotation have been set since the team traded for seven-time All-Star Chris Sale this winter, adding him to the returning trio of Strider, 2022 Cy Young Award runner-up Max Fried and 40-year-old Charlie Morton, who still has one of best curveballs in baseball, along with mid-90s velocity.
The only question has been which order the four will be in when the season begins, with Strider and Fried presumably in the first two spots and Morton and Sale in the third and fourth, in either order. If splitting the lefties is important to the Braves — they’ve not said it is — they could do that by having Fried begin the season as the No. 2 starter and Sale as the No. 4. But Fried and Sale are so vastly different in their repertoires, pitching mechanics and release points, that it probably isn’t as important as it might be for two other lefties.
López has had more success as a flamethrowing reliever in recent years than he did previously as a starter, but he and the Braves believe he’s a better pitcher now than in his years as a starter. They’ve had him get stretched out to start during the offseason and this spring. The idea is that it’s easier to move him to the bullpen after getting him stretched out than it would be to move him from the bullpen to the rotation. The latter would require him to get stretched out before such a move could be made.
But this spring, he’s outpitched the other top fifth-starter candidate, Bryce Elder, and the Braves optioned top prospects AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep —who both could help them by summer — for those two to get more innings and continue to develop at Triple A. Huascar Ynoa is also making his way back from Tommy John surgery and had an encouraging one-inning spring debut Saturday.
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López allowed a pair of solo homers Sunday against Boston but only two other hits and no other runs in five innings. That gave him a 2.16 ERA and .179 opponents’ average in five games (three starts) this spring, with 13 strikeouts and six walks in 16 2/3 innings. The velocity hasn’t been close to the 98-100 mph he featured as a reliever last season, but he believes as he gets more accustomed to starting, that velo could tick back up from the 94-95 mph he’s featured this spring. He threw a few 96 mph fastballs Sunday.
“I think he’ll be fine,” if the Braves open with López in the rotation, manager Brian Snitker said. “We’re going to sit down, evaluate this thing and see. … Once you start and get the thing off the ground, anything can happen.”
Relief pitchers (8): RHs Pierce Johnson, Joe Jiménez, Jackson Stephens; LHs A.J. Minter, Aaron Bummer, Tyler Matzek, Dylan Lee; closer Raisel Iglesias
Matzek said at the beginning of spring training that it was possible the Braves would have him start the season on the injured list to get a couple more weeks of appearances in Triple A if they felt like he wasn’t quite ready. (He missed last season recovering from October 2022 Tommy John surgery.) But Matzek has looked sharp this spring, and Sunday against Baltimore he had four strikeouts and two groundouts in two perfect innings.
“Just with the command, the stuff, the whole thing — he’s been a little farther along than I really thought he would be at this point,” Snitker said of the lefty, who has nine strikeouts in 5 2/3 scoreless innings this spring, with two walks and two hits allowed.
With so much depth, the Braves can have proven or promising relievers, including lefties Ray Kerr and Dylan Lee and righty Daysbel Hernández, at Triple A to begin the season, since they have minor-league options. And Giles is on a minor-league deal and understood that he might start the season in Triple A after pitching so little in the majors in recent years.
Catchers (2): Sean Murphy, Travis d’Arnaud
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Murphy made the NL All-Star team in his first season with the Braves in 2023, and d’Arnaud was a first-time All-Star in 2022.
Infielders (5): 1B Matt Olson, 2B Ozzie Albies, 3B Austin Riley, SS Orlando Arcia, utility man Luis Guillorme
The entire Braves infield made the NL All-Star team in 2023, and Olson, Riley and Albies were among the NL’s top 13 in both home runs and OPS, as were teammates Acuña and DH Marcell Ozuna. Olson set franchise records with 54 homers and 139 RBIs, both MLB-leading totals. Riley and Albies combined for 70 homers and 206 RBIs.
(NEW) Outfielders (4): LFs Jared Kelenic, Adam Duvall, CF Michael Harris II, RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
J.P. Martinez and Wall are expected to open at Triple A and get regular at-bats there in case the Braves need to call either to the majors to fill in for an injured outfielder.
DH (1): Marcell Ozuna
Final spot: Utility infielder David Fletcher over outfielders Luke Williams and Eli White.
It also won’t surprise if the Braves go with Williams instead of Fletcher because of the speed element. With Wall presumed to be headed to Triple A after last week’s addition of Duvall for a left-field platoon, the Braves won’t have a big-time speed guy on the bench who could be used in a pinch-run situation late in a close game the way Wall could have been used.
But while Williams doesn’t have Wall’s gaudy stolen-base numbers, he does have above-average speed and can get a steal or take an extra base. Also, Williams is the lone backup outfield candidate who has infield experience — he’s played every infield position in the majors and has starts at second base, third base and shortstop.
Then again, after saying at the beginning of spring training that speed would likely be a factor in determining one of the final two spots on the bench, general manager and president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said a couple of weeks later that it would “probably be only one in 20 games” where Snitker would have a situation where he’d want to pinch run for Olson, Murphy or Arcia, the slowest runners in the lineup.
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Because of that, Anthopoulos said they weren’t “married” to the idea of having a speed-first type such as Wall on the roster.
And with the addition of Duvall, at-bats for Wall or Williams would likely be extremely limited. While Williams does have the versatility to play infield and outfield, Fletcher has flashed his outstanding defense this spring at second base, shortstop and third base. Snitker noted Sunday, after another two-hit game for Fletcher, that he provides quality at-bats in addition to defensive prowess.
(Photo of Forrest Wall, left, and Luke Williams: Charlie Neibergall / Associated Press)
